Technology and Social Change

Lecture 4: Agricultural Revolution

Bogdan G. Popescu
bgpopescu@tec.mx

Tecnológico de Monterrey

Puzzles and Objectives

A Provocative Question

Was Agriculture Humanity’s Worst Mistake?

  • Diamond (1987): called agriculture a “catastrophe”
  • Hunter-gatherers had more leisure, better nutrition
  • Yet agriculture underlies all complex civilization
  • Paradox: was it progress or a demographic trap?

Wheat: the crop that changed human civilization — for better or worse. Photo: Bluemoose / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0).

Why Political Scientists Care

Technology Shapes Political Possibility

  • Agriculture created surplus: foundation of state power
  • Sedentism enabled taxation and territorial control
  • Property systems emerged to manage resources
  • Early institutional choices persist for millennia

Agriculture as Technological Revolution

More Than a Change in Diet

  • Technology = systematic knowledge transforming nature
  • New tools, techniques, knowledge, social organization
  • Enabled population growth by order of magnitude
  • Created entirely new social forms

Learning Objectives

  1. Explain agriculture as technological transformation
  2. Trace: surplus → specialization → hierarchy → institutions
  3. Compare agricultural transitions across regions
  4. Evaluate progress vs. trap interpretations
  5. Connect agricultural origins to long-run development

So What?

Agriculture was not just a dietary shift — it was the first technological revolution that restructured all human social organization.

The analytical tools we build here will apply to every subsequent technological transformation in this course.

Next: What conceptual framework helps us analyze this?

Conceptual Framework

Defining Technology

Beyond Gadgets and Machines

  • “A means to fulfill a human purpose” (Arthur, 2009)
  • Includes knowledge, practices, organization — not just tools
  • Technologies are combinatorial: built from existing pieces
  • Technologies are recursive: enable further innovation

The Cognitive Revolution (~70,000 BCE)

What Came Before Agriculture

  • Language, abstract thought, large-scale cooperation
  • Enabled culture, planning, and social learning
  • Limited to foraging bands (20–150 people)
  • Material constraints: no surplus, no accumulation

Lascaux cave paintings (c. 17,000 BCE): evidence of symbolic thought and complex communication long before agriculture. Source: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

The Agricultural Revolution (~10,000 BCE)

A Package of Transformations

  • Domestication of plants and animals
  • Sedentary settlement replaces nomadic movement
  • Population density increases dramatically
  • Storage enables surplus and accumulation

Çatalhöyük (southern Turkey, c. 7500 BCE): one of the earliest known proto-urban settlements, housing up to 10,000 people. Source: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

The Core Causal Chain

Surplus → Specialization → Hierarchy → Institutions

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flowchart LR
    A["<b>SURPLUS</b><br/>Storage &amp;<br/>accumulation"] --> B["<b>SPECIALIZATION</b><br/>Division of labor<br/>&amp; new roles"]
    B --> C["<b>HIERARCHY</b><br/>Elites emerge<br/>&amp; unequal power"]
    C --> D["<b>INSTITUTIONS</b><br/>Property rights<br/>&amp; political order"]
    D -->|"Feedback: institutions<br/>stabilize extraction"| A

    style A fill:#4a7c6f,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style B fill:#4a7c6f,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style C fill:#b44527,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style D fill:#b44527,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155

Source: Author’s illustration based on Harari (2015) and Acemoglu & Robinson (2012).

Class Exercise 1

Technology and Surplus Today

Prompt: In pairs, identify a modern technology that follows the surplus → specialization → hierarchy pattern. What “surplus” does it create? Who controls it?

Think about platforms like Uber, Amazon, or social media.

Time: 5 minutes

Comparative Evidence

Independent Agricultural Revolutions

Multiple Origins, Similar Consequences

  • Agriculture emerged independently at least 7–11 times
  • Fertile Crescent (~9,000 BCE), China (~8,000 BCE)
  • Mesoamerica (~7,000 BCE), New Guinea (~7,000 BCE)
  • Similar causal chains despite different crops and contexts

Agricultural Origins Worldwide

Figure 1: Independent centers of agricultural origin. Dates approximate.

Case 1 — The Fertile Crescent

Why Here? Why Then?

  • Favorable climate: wet winters, dry summers
  • Wild ancestors of wheat, barley, sheep, goats
  • Climate shift at end of Younger Dryas (~9700 BCE)
  • Population grew 10–100× in agricultural zones

The Fertile Crescent: the arc of territory stretching from the Nile to the Tigris–Euphrates where agriculture first emerged. Source: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

Case 1 — Political Organization

From Villages to States

  • Early cities: Uruk (40,000+ by 3100 BCE)
  • First states: taxation, bureaucracy, armies
  • First writing: accounting for surplus (cuneiform)
  • Temple economies: centralized redistribution

Cuneiform tablet recording barley and emmer distribution (c. 3100–2900 BCE). Writing began as accounting for agricultural surplus. Source: Metropolitan Museum of Art (CC0).

Case 2 — China

Two Rivers, Two Crops

  • Yellow River (north): millet (~8,000 BCE)
  • Yangtze River (south): rice (~8,000 BCE)
  • Neolithic villages: Banpo, Hemudu (5000+ BCE)
  • Bronze Age states: Shang dynasty (~1600 BCE)
  • “Hydraulic hypothesis”: irrigation demands coordination

Distribution of rice (south) and millet (north) farming sites in Neolithic China, showing two distinct agricultural zones. Source: Obsidian Soul / Wikimedia Commons (CC0).

Case 2 — Property and Institutions

Distinctive Chinese Features

  • Well-field system: communal + private land
  • Early census and taxation systems
  • Ancestor worship tied to land inheritance
  • Bureaucratic selection evolved into examinations

Case 3 — Mesoamerica

Different Constraints, Similar Outcomes

  • Maize domestication began ~9,000 years ago from teosinte
  • “Three sisters” polyculture: nutritionally complete
  • No large domesticated animals for labor or transport
  • Cities: Teotihuacan (100,000+ by 400 CE)
  • Human labor substituted for animal labor

Teotihuacan, Mexico: the Pyramids of the Sun and Moon. By 400 CE this city housed over 100,000 people — one of the largest in the ancient world. Source: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

Case 3 — Political Organization

Complex States Without the Wheel

  • City-states and empires (Maya, Aztec)
  • Tribute systems: surplus extraction at scale
  • Sophisticated calendars and writing (Maya glyphs)
  • Priest-king rulers: religious and political authority fused

Cross-Regional Comparison

Feature Fertile Crescent China Mesoamerica
Key crops Wheat, barley Rice, millet Maize, squash
Draft animals Yes Yes No
First cities ~3500 BCE ~2000 BCE ~500 BCE
Writing origin Accounting Divination Calendrics
State type Bureaucratic Centralized Tribute-based

Source: Author’s summary based on Diamond (1997) and Trigger (2003).

Population Growth After Agriculture

Figure 2: World population growth after the agricultural revolution.

From Agriculture to State Formation

Figure 3: Lag between agriculture onset and first state formation.

Agriculture Made Inequality Possible

Figure 4: Wealth Gini rises with subsistence intensification.

Class Exercise 2

Counterfactual Reasoning

Prompt: Compare the Fertile Crescent and Mesoamerica. If Mesoamerica had possessed draft animals, how might its development trajectory have differed? Identify two specific mechanisms.

Consider: labor productivity, transportation, military technology, disease ecology.

Time: 5 minutes

Competing Interpretations

Two Competing Interpretations

Progress (traditional view)

  • More food → more people → more innovation
  • Precondition for science, philosophy, civilization
  • Progressive narrative: foraging → farming → modernity

Trap (revisionist challenge)

  • Harari: agriculture made most humans worse off
  • Harder work, worse nutrition, more disease
  • More inequality, violence, and coercion

The “Trap” Mechanisms

Why Populations Couldn’t Go Back

  • Population growth outstripped foraging carrying capacity
  • Sedentism created property that couldn’t be abandoned
  • Knowledge of foraging was lost over generations
  • States coerced farming through taxation and force

Model A — Environmental Determinism

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flowchart LR
    A["<b>GEOGRAPHY</b><br/>Climate, species,<br/>continental axes"] --> B["<b>AGRICULTURE<br/>TIMING</b><br/>Early vs. late<br/>adoption"]
    B --> C["<b>TECHNOLOGY<br/>SPREAD</b><br/>Head-start<br/>advantages"]
    C --> D["<b>DEVELOPMENT<br/>OUTCOMES</b><br/>Rich vs.<br/>poor today"]

    style A fill:#4a7c6f,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style B fill:#4a7c6f,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style C fill:#4a7c6f,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style D fill:#b7943a,color:#1e293b,stroke:#334155

Source: Author’s illustration based on Diamond (1997). Geography determines outcomes directly.

Model B — Institutional Mediation

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flowchart LR
    A["<b>GEOGRAPHY</b><br/>Climate &amp;<br/>resources"] --> B["<b>AGRICULTURE<br/>TIMING</b><br/>Early vs. late"]
    B --> C["<b>INSTITUTIONS</b><br/>Extractive vs.<br/>inclusive"]
    C --> D["<b>DEVELOPMENT<br/>OUTCOMES</b><br/>Divergent paths"]
    E["<b>CRITICAL<br/>JUNCTURES</b><br/>Agency &amp;<br/>contingency"] --> C

    style A fill:#4a7c6f,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style B fill:#4a7c6f,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style C fill:#b44527,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style D fill:#b7943a,color:#1e293b,stroke:#334155
    style E fill:#b44527,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155

Source: Author’s illustration based on Acemoglu & Robinson (2012). Institutions mediate geography’s effects.

Evaluating the Competing Views

Synthesis and Assessment

  • Both progress and trap narratives capture partial truths
  • Environment matters for initial conditions
  • Institutions determine long-run outcomes
  • Path dependence is real but not deterministic
  • Human agency operates within structural constraints

Class Exercise 3

Debate — Progress or Trap?

Prompt: Divide into two groups. Group A argues agriculture was humanity’s greatest achievement. Group B argues it was humanity’s worst mistake. Each group has 2 minutes to present, then 1 minute rebuttal.

Use evidence from the lecture. Which values are you prioritizing?

Time: 5 minutes

Modern Relevance

Agricultural Origins and Development Today

The Long Shadow of Early Farming

  • Countries with longer agricultural history: higher GDP
  • Putterman & Weil (2010): longer agricultural history correlates with significantly higher income
  • Mechanism: head start in state formation and technology
  • Correlation, not necessarily causation

Agricultural Ancestry and Modern Income

Figure 5: Ancestry-adjusted agricultural history vs. GDP per capita.

From Agricultural to Industrial Revolution

Continuity and Transformation

  • Industrial revolution: another technology → surplus → institutions cycle
  • Agricultural institutions shaped industrial possibilities
  • England’s agricultural revolution preceded industrial takeoff
  • Same analytical template applies across eras

Discussion and Synthesis

Key Takeaways

  1. Agriculture as technology: a transformative package, not just farming
  2. The causal chain: surplus → specialization → hierarchy → institutions
  3. Comparative evidence: similar patterns across independent cases
  4. Competing views: progress vs. trap; environment vs. institutions
  5. Path dependence: early choices persist but do not fully determine outcomes

The Full Analytical Framework

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flowchart LR
    A["<b>GEOGRAPHY</b><br/>Climate &amp;<br/>species"] --> C["<b>AGRICULTURAL<br/>REVOLUTION</b><br/>Technology"]
    B["<b>COGNITION</b><br/>Language &amp;<br/>abstract thought"] --> C
    C --> D["<b>CAUSAL CHAIN</b><br/>Surplus → Hierarchy<br/>→ Institutions"]
    D --> E["<b>LONG-RUN<br/>CONSEQUENCES</b><br/>States, inequality,<br/>path dependence"]
    E --> F["<b>PROGRESS<br/>VIEW</b>"]
    E --> G["<b>TRAP<br/>VIEW</b>"]

    style A fill:#4a7c6f,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style B fill:#4a7c6f,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style C fill:#b44527,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style D fill:#b44527,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style E fill:#b7943a,color:#1e293b,stroke:#334155
    style F fill:#4a7c6f,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155
    style G fill:#b44527,color:#f9fafb,stroke:#334155

Source: Author’s synthesis of lecture framework.

Discussion Questions

  1. Was agriculture a mistake? Would you trade modernity for forager equality?
  2. How much does geography vs. institutions explain?
  3. Are we in a “digital trap” today? What parallels do you see?
  4. Can inclusive institutions overcome unfavorable initial conditions?

References

References

Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. Crown.

Arthur, W. B. (2009). The nature of technology: What it is and how it evolves. Free Press.

Bellwood, P. (2005). First farmers. Blackwell.

Diamond, J. (1997). Guns, germs, and steel: The fates of human societies. W. W. Norton & Company.

Harari, Y. N. (2015). Sapiens: A brief history of humankind. Harper.

Marcus, J., & Feinman, G. M. (1998). Archaic states. SAR Press.

McEvedy, C., & Jones, R. (1978). Atlas of world population history. Penguin.

North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press.

Scott, J. C. (2017). Against the grain: A deep history of the earliest states. Yale University Press.

Trigger, B. G. (2003). Understanding early civilizations. Cambridge University Press.